Private debt’s steady rise in the UK
In a little over a decade, private debt has become a crucial source of capital for companies in the UK, Europe, and the world. Building on its position as a global financial and alternative assets hub, the UK is now firmly established as a leading centre for private debt.
Private debt assets under management (AUM) at UK-based fund managers has grown from just $15.8bn in 2008 to $257.9 at the end of 2023, according to Preqin data. There are now 254 active private debt fund managers in the UK, and their AUM accounts for 64% of the total in Europe.
Investors in private debt have benefited from attractive risk-adjusted returns and diversification. Returns from private debt increased after the COVID-19 pandemic as interest rates rose, pushing the three-year horizon IRR to December 2023 to 15.8%. Returns over the longer-term have been robust: 11.7% over the past five years and 9.2% over 10.
The Global Financial Crisis was the catalyst for growth, as banks adopted more conservative lending practices and deleveraged their balance sheets. This has led to a secular shift in credit, with certain types of loans – particularly more specialised and complex – becoming concentrated in lenders outside of the banking system.
Regulators around the world are now focused on possible risks from an asset class that manages $1.74tn of capital. So far, their assessments have been measured. In its May 2023 Financial Stability Report, the US Federal Reserve concluded that “financial stability risks from private credit funds appear limited”. The Bank of England is concerned about vulnerabilities in “market-based finance” and will publish the results of a system-wide exploratory exercise at the end of the year, but acknowledges that markets, including private equity and private credit, are “an important source of funding for UK businesses.”
Private debt has grown rapidly, but as an industry it is in its infancy. Direct lending to companies is the largest strategy ($126.7bn) at UK-based fund managers, followed by special situations ($42.5bn), mezzanine ($32.3bn), and distressed debt ($18.8bn). New and ever more specialised categories are emerging, from litigation finance to bridge lending, agricultural lending, and asset-based finance. Debt funds are rapidly gaining market share in infrastructure and real estate.
The private debt landscape will evolve and grow. Preqin forecasts private debt AUM will reach $2.8tn in 2028, almost double what it was in 2022 ($1.5tn). The industry will face more scrutiny, but it will play a growing role in financing UK PLC.
Authored by Nicole Lee
SVP, Head of Content at Preqin
Nicole will be moderating a breakout panel, “How European private credit is evolving”, on September 12 at the BVCA Summit 2024, featuring guest speakers from CVC Credit, Legal & General, and Partners Group.